Good morning {{first_name|Friend}}.

You're watching your portfolio drop. So am I. Everyone around you is panicking, selling, trying to time the dip, pulling out "until things settle down."

You're wondering: should you do something? Or nothing?

This week: why trying to time the market costs you more than the market itself, a French GMT that stands out from the crowd, and the real cost of emotional investing.

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You're watching the markets tank. Oil prices are up. Global conflict. Financial uncertainty everywhere. Your portfolio is down. You're panicking.

So you sell. Or you try to "buy the dip." You're going to time this perfectly. Get out before it drops more. Get back in at the bottom. You're smarter than this.

Except you're not.

Research from Charles Schwab found that investing immediately earned 92% as much as timing the market perfectly, and perfect timing is impossible. The difference between doing nothing and being psychic? Only 8% over 20 years. But the cost of mistiming? Massive.

Missing the market's 10 best days over 30 years would cut your returns in half. Missing the best 30 days would reduce returns by 84%, according to data from Hartford Funds. And here's the brutal part: seven of the 10 best days over the last 20 years happened during bear markets. The days you're most likely to panic and sell are the days you need to stay invested.

You're seeing this right now. Coworkers trying to buy the dip. Friends selling because they "lost too much." People on social media claiming they're getting out "until this settles down." They're all making the same mistake: thinking they can predict what comes next.

They can't. And neither can you.

I've been through this before. 2020. 2022. Every time, the headlines scream panic. Every time, people sell. Every time, the market recovers, and the people who sold miss it. (And by the way, I remember 2008 as a 20 year old)

Right now, I'm doing what I've always done: staying invested. I contribute to index funds twice per week through Wealthfront. I'm maxing my Roth IRA. I check my portfolio about once per week, down from daily during calmer times. Not because I don't care, but because checking obsessively doesn't change the outcome.

The S&P 500 has delivered positive returns over every 20-year period in its history, including periods with severe bear markets and financial crises. Staying fully invested produces better outcomes than moving in and out. This isn't theory. It's historical fact.

The alternative to panic is simple: dollar-cost averaging. Keep investing at regular intervals regardless of what the market does. You buy more when prices are low. You buy less when prices are high. Over time, it works.

But most people don't do this. They feel the pain of losses more intensely than the pleasure of gains. They sell at the worst time, after big drops, and buy back after recovery, missing the rebound. This pattern is effectively buying high and selling low.

Here's what you should do right now: stick to your plan. Keep contributing. Stop checking your portfolio every day. Turn off CNBC. The market will recover. It always does. But only if you're still in it.

What's at stake? Real wealth. Missing the recovery means locking in losses. Emotional investing costs you more than market volatility ever will.

You're not going to time the market. Stop trying.

You're looking for a GMT watch that doesn't scream "I bought a Rolex knockoff." Something your friends don't have. Something with actual history behind it and not just marketing.

The YEMA Navygraf Marine Nationale GMT might be it. View full specs.

Price: $1,549 (currently on sale for $1,084)

This is a French military tool watch developed with the French Navy. Real military use, not just military styling. The blue dial pops. The GMT and seconds hands stand out against it. At 38.5mm diameter and 12mm thick, it wears like a neo-vintage piece, not a modern dinner plate.

What works:

What doesn't:

Is it worth $1,084? Yes. At full price ($1,549), it's a harder sell. But on sale, this is a solid first GMT or a unique addition to a collection.

Who should buy this: You want a GMT that's different. You travel for work. You're tired of seeing the same watches everywhere. You want something with real military history, not just aesthetic.

Who should skip it: You need brand recognition. You want maximum resale value. You're hoping people notice your watch.

Verdict: Consider (at $1,084). Maybe (at $1,549).

If you can find one in stock and on sale, it's worth considering.

The S&P 500 returned 25.02% in 2024. The average investor earned 16.54%.

That's an 8.48 percentage point gap, the second-largest underperformance in a decade, according to DALBAR's 2025 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior.

This wasn't because of bad fund selection. It was behavior. Panic selling. Trying to time the market. Pulling money out in the third quarter, right before a major rally.

Over 30 years, this gap is even worse. From 1985 to 2015, the S&P 500 returned 10.35% annually while the average investor earned just 3.66%—a 6.69 percentage point difference.

That gap compounds. On a $100,000 investment over 20 years, staying fully invested would give you $717,503. The average investor? $345,614. You lose more than half your potential gains by trying to outsmart the market.

Emotional investing costs you real wealth. The market rewards patience. It punishes panic.

You can't control what the market does. But you can control what you do. Stay invested. Stop checking. Stick to the plan.

Three things this week: stop trying to time the market, a French GMT worth knowing about, and the 8.48% gap that emotional investing creates.

They all connect.

You can't predict the market. You can control your behavior. Stay invested. Keep contributing. Stop checking your portfolio every hour.

The average investor loses half their potential gains by panicking. The market rewards patience. It punishes emotion.

Your move: stick to the plan. The long game wins.